After my awful 5.9% win rate last year, I came out with a 17.3% winning percentage this year with Tim Hortons' Roll-up-the-Rim promotion with 9 wins over 52 coffees. Most of the wins were coffees with one or two donuts in there. Counting up my coffees and percentages over the last couple of years, I have an overall average of 10.8% (24 wins in 223 coffees).

Considering Tim Hortons advertises 1 in 9 odds of winning, I'm just below the expected outcome of 11.1%. So... What's the moral of this story? Winning free stuff from your favourite coffee chain is just like playing blackjack -- there are ups and downs, but at the end of the day, the house still takes about 0.5% of your cash.